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13:00
Jun 03
Jun 03
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia benefits from AI capex surge
Alphabet's massive $80B equity offering and $180-190B capex plans indicate enormous demand for AI hardware. Nvidia is the primary supplier of AI chips, and this capex surge will drive Nvidia's revenue and earnings higher. The fundamentals are driving the AI trade, and Nvidia remains the best way to play it.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
22:13
Jun 02
Jun 02
HON 1ST
HST
EEM 1ST
CDNS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Honeywell breakout with support at $220.
Honeywell shows a technical breakout with higher highs and higher lows, holding support at $220-225 (former range ceiling now floor). If it reaccelerates and stays above $220, it is an orderly uptrend. Can set trailing stops at $220, close below would be an issue. It is a consistent uptrend worth buying.
HON LONG
HST inverse head and shoulders watching.
Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on monthly candles since 2012. It has cleared the neckline but still faces resistance around $245. It is a REIT that could be the next long-term uptrend. Watching for a clean breakout above resistance.
HST WATCH
EM massive base breakout, must be long.
Emerging markets (EEM) are up 58% last year and 28% YTD, forming a massive base since 2007. The larger the base, the higher in space. Most people are underallocated. The rally is driven by AI (Samsung, SK Hynix) but the asset class is attractive. Must be long.
EEM LONG
CDNS breakout, relative outperformer in software.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is a relative outperformers in software, breaking out on a weekly chart with a very bullish candlestick. It is an orderly breakout and looks phenomenal. Buy a stock already going up.
CDNS LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 29
May 29
SOXX 1ST
IWM 1ST
S&P 493
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Semis supported by earnings, not bubble
Semiconductors have rallied 70-100% but this is backed by unprecedented earnings growth, not speculation. The price move is exactly in line with earnings, and valuation is in the bottom quartile historically, historically leading to 70% odds of further outperformance over the next 12 months. The business cycle may have lengthened, making the current run more sustainable.
SOXX LONG
Russell 2000 earnings recovery just beginning
Small-cap earnings (Russell 2000) are at the very beginning of a recovery after a three-year manufacturing recession. ISM new orders have inflected higher, and earnings for non-earners are flipping positive. This cycle has just started and could persist for years, supported by a broader manufacturing recovery.
IWM LONG
S&P 493 earnings recovery is just starting
Earnings growth for the S&P 493 (stocks outside the Magnificent Seven) is just beginning after a three-year contraction, with only four months into the recovery. This broadening is underappreciated and suggests sustained upside for non-Mag7 equities as margin expansion and earnings recovery continue symmetrically.
S&P 493 LONG
Multiple compression with earnings growth bullish
The S&P 500 is experiencing rare multiple compression while earnings grow strongly, creating a favorable setup. Investor fear remains elevated (low VIX relative to history, high put/call ratio), and valuations are not a reliable timing signal. The market is sober and can continue to climb the wall of worry as long as earnings hold up.
SPY LONG
HIGH
17:53
May 27
May 27
SHEL 1ST
XOM 1ST
DVN 1ST
▾
MED
Sell overweight energy for balanced portfolio.
The investor has huge gains in Exxon, Shell, and Devon Energy and is feeling burned out by constant market monitoring. To reduce stress and simplify, the best course is to sell these energy holdings (in a tax-efficient way if possible) and reinvest the proceeds into a diversified, balanced portfolio aligned with a stated asset allocation. This removes the need to time geopolitical events or oil price moves.
SHEL AVOID
XOM AVOID
DVN AVOID
MED
13:00
May 27
May 27
FND 1ST
IMAX
▾
HIGH
Betting on home renovation boom
Floor & Decor (FND) is a beaten-down stock (65% drawdown) that will benefit from a multi-decade home renovation boom. Aging housing stock, boomers staying in homes longer, and locked-in mortgage rates will eventually drive renovation spending, and the stock is a way to get ahead of that cycle.
FND LONG
Holding IMAX for takeover premium
IMAX has received acquisition offers and I am holding the stock to wait for a potential bidding war. Movies are having a moment, and a takeover premium could provide upside.
IMAX LONG
HIGH
22:23
May 26
May 26
RSP 1ST
TSLA 1ST
MAG7 1ST
▾
MED
Equal weight S&P outperforms MAG7
The SpaceX IPO will create massive supply pressure on the top of the S&P 500, as passive funds must sell existing mega-cap stocks to raise cash for the new inclusion, and hedge funds warehouse the stock. This will cause the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) to outperform the mega-cap MAG7 stocks until the deal is fully seasoned, likely 9-12 months.
RSP LONG
MAG7 SHORT
Short Tesla ahead of SpaceX IPO
Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, fanboys will rotate out of Tesla into the new SpaceX stock, causing selling pressure on Tesla. Shorting Tesla is the midcurve trade into the IPO.
TSLA SHORT
MED
13:01
May 22
May 22
NVDA 1ST
RSP FLIP
MU 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia is a blue chip survivor.
Nvidia is a blue chip survivor because of its CUDA software ecosystem, founder-led innovation, and its ability to drive costs down like Walmart. It has durable competitive advantages and will remain a key provider of AI compute. The stock is transitioning from hypergrowth to a blue chip investor base.
NVDA LONG
Cap weight beats equal weight.
Cap-weight index investing is superior to equal-weight because the largest companies have durable moats from network effects and weak antitrust enforcement. Equal weight cuts winners and underperforms in this environment.
RSP AVOID
SPY LONG
Memory chip stocks are a bubble.
Memory chip companies like Micron lack competitive moats. Their earnings surge is driven by price increases, not value-added innovation. They are vulnerable to Chinese competition and efficiency improvements in AI models. This is a bubble.
MU AVOID
HIGH
22:20
May 19
May 19
SMH FLIP
LUNR
ASTS
PL
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Semis wave, not bubble, long.
Semiconductors (SMH) are not in a bubble but a wave, supported by structural supply constraints on leading-edge wafers and power. This capex cycle is funded by cash flow from profitable giants, not IPO equity, making it more sustainable. The sector should continue to benefit from AI buildout with no imminent demand evaporation.
SMH LONG
Watch Intuitive Machines space play.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is a speculative watch ahead of a possible SpaceX S-1 filing, which could ignite interest in the space sector. The company is building a 'space prime' contractor model, winning NASA lunar logistics and communications contracts, with revenue up 3x year-over-year.
LUNR WATCH
Watch AST SpaceMobile satellite play.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a speculative watch. The company provides low-orbit satellite mobile coverage (Bluebirds), has FCC approval for direct-to-cell services using AT&T and Verizon spectrum, and $1.2B in committed contracts. It is seen as an alternative to Starlink.
ASTS WATCH
Watch Planet Labs imaging play.
Planet Labs (PL) is a speculative watch. It provides daily Earth imaging from orbit and is positioned as a data provider for corporations and governments ('Google of the sky'). It runs AI inference on satellites using NVIDIA hardware, and Google is a major stakeholder. The stock has already run but may get another look from SpaceX hype.
PL WATCH
Long Nvidia with stop below 200.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a long into earnings with a technical risk management approach: risk 10% with a stop below 200, and 250 is more likely than 200. The fundamental thesis is strong due to sustained hyperscaler capex, Blackwell demand, inference opportunity, and structural supply constraints. The stock is in an uptrend with rising moving averages and RSI not overbought.
NVDA LONG
Long IMAX on brand and drawdown.
IMAX (IMAX) is a long. The stock is down 23% from highs, but the longer-term uptrend is intact, the brand is premier, and the future is bright. The drawdown presents an opportunity for long-term holders, though near-term catalysts are event-driven (movie grosses).
IMAX LONG
HIGH
13:01
May 15
May 15
NVDA
ITAN 1ST
IGV FLIP
▾
HIGH
Nvidia must trade at size discount.
Nvidia's massive market cap (over $6 trillion, 8.5% of S&P 500) means it cannot trade at a high forward P/E premium; a size discount is required, implying limited multiple expansion from here.
NVDA WATCH
Buy intangible value ETFs ITAN/DANK.
Sparkline Capital's ETFs (ITAN and DANK) systematically buy stocks that are cheap relative to an expanded definition of intrinsic value that includes intangible moats like brand, human capital, IP, and network effects, aiming to capture value in a modern economy.
ITAN LONG
ITAN LONG
Software stocks may never recover.
Many publicly traded software companies are structurally impaired by AI; code is becoming free, destroying their moats, and their stock charts show persistent 52-week lows with no recovery; they may never come back, like newspapers.
IGV AVOID
HIGH
18:00
May 13
May 13
SPY
AMAT 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 driven by accelerating earnings.
The S&P 500 is not detached from fundamentals; earnings are accelerating with 25% year-over-year growth, double-digit growth across sectors, and forward PE has fallen as earnings outpace price growth. The stock market is following earnings, not disconnected.
SPY LONG
Sell AMAT to reduce single-stock risk.
Applied Materials has huge embedded gains and high volatility, with past drawdowns of 86%, 50%, and 43%. To manage single-stock risk, it is sensible to sell at least a third to diversify and not let tax concerns prevent prudent reduction.
AMAT AVOID
HIGH
13:01
May 13
May 13
WDC 1ST
MU 1ST
SMH FLIP
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory semiconductors cheap on forward earnings
Semiconductor/memory stocks like Micron (MU) and SanDisk (WDC) have rallied massively (Micron up 800% in a year) but trade at very low forward P/E multiples (Micron ~9.7x 2026e, SanDisk ~11.5x) because earnings growth driven by insatiable AI compute demand has been even faster than the price rise. This combination of huge price gains and low valuations makes the current melt-up the most logical in history — it is not a bubble because the future can explain the present.
WDC LONG
MU LONG
SMH LONG
South Korea AI earnings driving vertical rally
South Korean stocks, represented by the EWY ETF, have gone vertical in the last year, driven by a massive explosion in forward earnings per share as companies like SK Hynix and Samsung become AI plays. The earnings chart matches the price chart, showing fundamental support. The South Korean market has overtaken Canada and the UK in size, reflecting this AI-driven transformation.
EWY LONG
HIGH
22:16
May 12
May 12
NFLX
SOXX
EWY
GS
▾
HIGH
Netflix is defensive, buy on dips.
Netflix (NFLX) is a defensive name that could catch a bid as money rotates out of momentum stocks. The stock closed a gap and is hammering out a higher low. I own it and would buy more if it drops further. The risk of much lower prices is low.
NFLX LONG
Double in 2 years signals bubble.
When an index or sector doubles in value over two years or less, it signals a bubble zone. This is a yellow flag for position sizing, not a sell ticket. The signal suggests elevated risk of a V-shaped drawdown over the next 6-12 months. For the KOSPI (Korean stock index) and the SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), this condition has been triggered. Investors should reduce exposure and not add risk.
SOXX WATCH
EWY WATCH
Goldman breakout signals bull market.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is the ultimate capital markets mood ring. If it breaks above the 1000 level with conviction, it signals continued bull market for the next 6 months. If it fails, it implies the cycle may be peaking. The stock is setting up for a breakout near 950-960, and a clear move above that zone would be a bullish market signal.
GS WATCH
HIGH
13:00
May 08
May 08
USO
XLE 1ST
VOO FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid USO, use XLE for oil
USO (oil futures ETF) suffers from significant roll costs that can reach 30% annually, making it a poor vehicle for oil exposure. Instead, use XLE (energy sector equities), which avoids futures roll issues and provides a more direct equity-based play on oil prices, especially through refiners.
USO AVOID
XLE LONG
S&P 500 wins from AI adaptation
The S&P 500 is the ultimate winner from AI disruption because incumbent companies will adapt and incorporate AI, just as old-economy companies successfully adapted to e-commerce. Market-cap-weighted indexing captures these adaptations, making broad U.S. equity exposure the best way to benefit.
VOO LONG
HIGH
17:47
May 06
May 06
INTC 1ST
VTI
BIL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Sell Intel; too concentrated and risky
Sell Intel (INTC) after its 500% run because it's found money, the stock can drop 80% again, and diversification is more important than avoiding capital gains taxes; sell all or at least half.
INTC AVOID
Broad equity index for longer horizons
For a longer horizon (3-5 years or retirement), invest a lump sum in a broad market index like VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market) because stocks tend to rise over time and the risk of a crash is offset by lower home prices and interest rates.
VTI LONG
Short-term fixed income for near-term needs
For cash needed within 1-2 years for a down payment, invest in T-bills, high-yield savings, money market, or short-term bonds yielding 3-5% to avoid principal loss risk.
BIL LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 06
May 06
02:32
May 05
May 05
SMH
ROK 1ST
UBER
▾
HIGH
75% chance 40% semi correction.
Josh Brown assigns a 75% probability of a 40% correction in semiconductor stocks over the next 12 months due to extreme valuations and the risk of a technological breakthrough that reduces memory/compute demand. He and Michael Batnick agree that such a move could happen to all semi names at once, possibly triggered by an LLM saying it needs 20% less memory.
SMH AVOID
Own robots via Rockwell Automation.
Josh Brown recommends owning robotics-related stocks because humanoid robot shipments are forecast to surge 86% annually, creating a multi-trillion-dollar market. He specifically mentions Rockwell Automation as a stock that continually goes up as smart investors recognize the long-term robotics trend.
ROK LONG
Uber to be autonomous leader.
Josh Brown holds Uber and believes the company will have more autonomous vehicles on the road than competitors like Waymo or Tesla by 2030. Once that leadership becomes obvious, the stock will rerate much higher. He is staying long to capture that catalyst despite short-term earnings volatility.
UBER LONG
HIGH
13:00
May 01
May 01
GOOGL 1ST
TTAN
TNE.AX 1ST
LNG 1ST
TOST
▾
HIGH
High quality enduring competitive advantage.
Google (Alphabet) shares similar high-quality traits: strong competitive moat, massive cash flow, and reinvestment in AI and cloud. It fits the profile of a durable compounder.
GOOGL LONG
Sticky home services software.
ServiceTitan provides software for home-services contractors (plumbers, electricians, etc.). Once a contractor adopts it, they never switch. The company is founder-led, understands the industry, and is gaining share. The stock is down but the business is intact.
TTAN LONG
Mission critical software with high stickiness.
Technology One provides mission-critical software for local councils and universities. The product is deeply embedded, has high switching costs, and represents a tiny fraction of customer costs. AI enhancements make it even stickier. This combination supports long-term compounding.
TNE.AX LONG
Commodity dependent, avoid.
Cheniere Energy's margins depend on natural gas prices, giving management little control over profitability. Commodity-driven businesses screen out as low quality because they lack pricing power and enduring competitive advantage. Therefore, avoid.
LNG AVOID
Sticky restaurant POS with network effect.
Toast is the dominant POS system for restaurants with 150,000 locations and expanding into hotels. Its network effect makes it sticky—once a restaurant worker learns Toast, they prefer it. Management has already beaten larger competitors and market share is still growing. Despite the stock being down, the business is stronger than ever.
TOST LONG
High quality with enduring competitive advantage.
Amazon is a high-quality company with enduring competitive advantage, founder-led culture, heavy reinvestment in R&D, and dominant AWS growth. These characteristics make it a likely candidate for 100-bagger returns over decades.
AMZN LONG
HIGH
13:00
Apr 29
Apr 29
HLNE 1ST
▾
MED
Hamilton Lane accounting shenanigans create downside risk
Hamilton Lane is particularly exposed to accounting manipulation because it buys secondaries at a discount and then marks them up to NAV to charge fees, pulling forward incentive fees. The stock is already down 55% and the risk of further declines is high given its retail exposure and lack of institutional base.
HLNE AVOID
MED
18:41
Apr 27
Apr 27
AMZN 1ST
JOBY 1ST
SMH FLIP
▾
HIGH
Sticking with Amazon through earnings.
Josh Brown is sticking with his Amazon position through earnings because of strong AWS growth, the island reversal technical pattern, and his conviction that the stock will perform well despite possible weak guidance. He holds it as his second largest position.
AMZN LONG
Highly speculative long on Joby Aviation.
Joby Aviation is a highly speculative long-term holding. Josh believes the company's eVTOL technology is revolutionary (quiet, redundant propellers, battery-powered), vertical integration mirrors successful companies like Tesla, and the product is now operational. He sees a potential 10x return but also acknowledges a risk of total loss. He recently bought more on the drawdown.
JOBY LONG
Avoid buying semiconductor stocks now.
Semiconductor stocks are extremely overbought with RSIs above 80-88, making them poor entries for new positions. Professional investors avoid buying at such extreme momentum levels, and the likelihood of a reversal is high. He recommends waiting for better entry points.
SMH AVOID
HIGH
13:00
Apr 24
Apr 24
APA 1ST
KKR 1ST
NVDA 1ST
BX 1ST
IGV 1ST
▾
HIGH
APA offers cheap energy exposure with yield.
APA is a diversified energy producer with 12% total yield (buybacks and dividends), trades at 7x earnings, and benefits from US production and potential Middle East crisis as a tail hedge.
APA LONG
Buy GP stocks KKR and Blackstone.
General partner equities like KKR and Blackstone are better than private credit products because the stocks have been cut in half while the underlying credit trades at par, offering a discount on a two-year view.
KKR LONG
BX LONG
Nvidia to $10 trillion by 2030.
Nvidia will reach a $10 trillion market cap by end of decade due to CUDA lock-in, 15% annual growth over 5 years, revenue at least doubling, massive cash flow, and difficulty for competitors to displace the platform.
NVDA LONG
Short software, long semiconductors trade.
The trend of being short software and long semiconductors will persist because software multiples have contracted but earnings will continue to miss as customers pressure pricing and AI spending shifts; semis are justified by massive earnings growth.
IGV SHORT
SMH LONG
Gilead has strong HIV franchise and pipeline.
Gilead is dominant in HIV, has a strong oncology pipeline with 50 drugs in development, and offers upside as pipeline progress unfolds; a stable healthcare name in an expensive market.
GILD LONG
Lam Research is a chip equipment monopoly.
Lam Research controls the chip manufacturing equipment market with an effective monopoly; essential for semiconductor fabrication and has rallied 170% since last August but still has upside.
LRCX LONG
BMNR offers Ethereum yield and upside.
BMNR (Bitmine) holds Ethereum and generates staking yield (3-4%), plus investments in moonshots like MrBeast; it is a bridge for institutions to access Ethereum's infrastructure and earn yield, not just price appreciation.
BMNR LONG
Broadcom benefits from hyperscaler AI spending.
Broadcom is positioned to win as hyperscalers increase spending on custom silicon and data center networking; 60% revenue growth, industry-leading profitability, and strong momentum justify owning the stock even at all-time highs.
AVGO LONG
NRG rides AI power bottleneck.
NRG is a derivative beneficiary of AI power demand, converting natural gas to electricity for data centers via unique 'bring your own power' deals; trading at 16x earnings with room to run.
NRG LONG
HIGH
13:01
Apr 22
Apr 22
IGV
AI
DKNG
SPY 1ST
IWM
▾
MED
Software stocks bouncing back.
Software stocks have bounced back and are at their highest levels in a while, and the software disruption story is not going away anytime soon, suggesting continued strength.
IGV LONG
AI adoption driving productivity boom.
We are likely in the early stages of another productivity boom due to AI adoption, similar to how internet adoption boosted productivity, and AI adoption is turning higher.
AI WATCH
Prediction markets threaten sports betting stocks.
Prediction markets (like Polymarket and Kalshi) have seen a massive ramp in volume, and they have a better business model than traditional sports betting platforms because they don't have to share revenue with states, which could threaten companies like FanDuel and DraftKings.
DKNG WATCH
Earnings growth accelerating, investors chasing.
The stock market makes perfect sense because the headwinds that were holding it back have receded, earnings growth is accelerating, and investors who were underallocated are now chasing the market.
SPY LONG
Small caps rallying strongly.
The Russell 2000 (small caps) has been rallying strongly and is at its highest levels in a while, and over the past year, small caps are up 50% compared to the S&P 500's 35%, indicating strength.
IWM LONG
Semiconductors have had a massive run.
Semiconductors have had a generational run, with the semiconductor ETF (SMH) up 29% YTD, 50% last year, 40% the year before, and 73% the year before that, and they now make up 16% of the S&P 500, closing in on the combined weight of energy, healthcare, staples, and utilities, suggesting caution.
SMH AVOID
MED
21:00
Apr 21
Apr 21
IWM 1ST
NFLX
SPY
IWC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Small caps breaking out as AI beneficiaries.
Small cap stocks are breaking out after a multi-year bear market, with the Russell 2000 showing a clean technical breakout. This move represents a handoff from the AI hyperscaler capex theme to the beneficiary theme, as small companies are the customers for AI spending and are more sensitive to eventual rate cuts. Micro caps have also rallied furiously, up 75% over the past year.
IWM LONG
IWC LONG
Buy Netflix on weakness as a quality compounder.
Netflix is a high-quality global leader in streaming, and the recent post-earnings sell-off is an opportunity to buy. The company is a quality compounder with record revenue, a growing ad platform, and strong long-term guidance. Despite near-term competitive concerns with YouTube, the stock's weakness allows for lowering average cost with buy limit orders in the low $90s.
NFLX LONG
S&P 500 poised for multi-expansion and earnings growth.
The US market is set for a furious rally over the next 18-24 months, potentially one of the best periods in history, because multiples should expand (not contract) due to the US's strong position, earnings are accelerating, retail investors have not fully returned, and international investors are seeking growth only available in the S&P 500.
SPY LONG
HIGH
13:01
Apr 17
Apr 17
WDC 1ST
NVDA 1ST
QXO 1ST
APP 1ST
NBIS 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI data demand boosts Western Digital's earnings.
Western Digital is one of only two hard disk drive manufacturers (with Seagate) and is benefiting from the AI-driven demand for data storage. The company has seen earnings estimates jump from $10 to $25, and the industry is not adding capacity quickly, leading to a supply-demand imbalance.
WDC LONG
Nvidia benefits from AI compute shortage.
Nvidia is the key enabler of AI compute, and the exponential growth in AI demand justifies the massive capex spend by hyperscalers. The company's chips are in shortage, and the ROI for hyperscalers is quick (18 months), supporting continued demand.
NVDA LONG
QXO consolidating building products with great leadership.
QXO, led by serial entrepreneur Brad Jacobs, is consolidating the fragmented building products market. Jacobs plans to increase EBITDA from $1 billion to $5 billion by 2029-30 by adding efficiency, technology, and taking pricing in the industry.
QXO LONG
AppLovin's e-commerce shift improves monetization.
AppLovin is transitioning from a mobile game advertising company to an e-commerce advertising company, which will allow it to monetize its inventory better. The CEO is keeping headcount flat while growing the topline, leading to cash flow generation.
APP LONG
Nebius is the next AI native hyperscaler.
Nebius, formed by ex-Yandex engineers who left Russia, is building AI data centers and has the potential to become the next AI-native hyperscaler. The company has a strong engineering team and is focused on building efficient AI data centers.
NBIS LONG
Palantir shepherds enterprises in AI adoption.
Palantir is helping enterprises adopt AI and is acting as a shepherd to cross the chasm. The company is well-positioned as a platform for AI adoption in the enterprise.
PLTR LONG
Apple's slow AI move risks its model.
Apple is at risk because it is not moving quickly on AI and has not released an AI agent (like an improved Siri). If Apple doesn't act, it could lose its competitive edge as AI enables new, screenless form factors that could replace the iPhone.
AAPL AVOID
AI-driven DRAM shortage benefits Micron.
Micron is a key DRAM supplier benefiting from the AI-driven memory shortage. The DRAM market has consolidated to three players, and pricing has increased significantly (100% year-over-year). The demand for memory in AI applications is exponential, and Micron's stock has risen from $85 to $450.
MU LONG
Amazon is cheap with strong AWS growth.
Amazon is undervalued with a PE in the teens, compared to other retailers like Costco and Walmart. AWS is growing in the mid-to-high 30s, driven by AI and the partnership with Anthropic. The company's own tranium chip, while behind Google's TPU, will help lower compute costs and provide more supply in a constrained market.
AMZN LONG
HIGH
13:00
Apr 15
Apr 15
XLE 1ST
NKE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Energy sector unlikely to regain market weight.
The energy sector's weight in the S&P 500 has declined from around 30% in 1980 to about 4% today and is unlikely to ever return to even 10% again, indicating long-term structural headwinds and unattractiveness for investment.
XLE AVOID
Nike's investment thesis is broken.
Nike's financial performance has deteriorated with declining direct sales and gross margins, and strategic missteps such as avoiding Amazon, making it a poor investment despite the brand not being tarnished.
NKE AVOID
HIGH
13:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
EEM 1ST
MSFT
XLK 1ST
▾
Consensus estimates for 2026 EPS growth in Emerging Markets are +35%, a massive outlier. This is driven by the index's heavy weighting in semiconductors (21%, including TSMC, Samsung) and technology (32%). International stocks are also less exposed to the struggling software sector. The EM index has reinvented itself from a resources/energy proxy to a tech/semi leader. Combined with shareholder-friendly reforms in countries like Japan and Korea focusing on earnings growth and valuation, this creates a compelling fundamental and technical setup. LONG because EM offers exposure to the working AI/hardware theme through semis, benefits from a potential rotation to value/international diversification, and is supported by positive technical charts suggesting a continuation higher. A sharp downturn in global semiconductor demand or a reversal of the US dollar strength.
EEM LONG
Medium-term
Microsoft stock is back to March 2024 lows despite the business's success, acting as a public proxy for OpenAI. The narrative has soured, partly due to OpenAI being "tarnished" and the shift in its business model from high-margin cash generation to significant capital expenditure and borrowing for AI infrastructure. As a Mag 7 "hyperscaler," Microsoft is pot-committed to massive AI spend, which the market fears will pressure future margins and free cash flow. Its stock performance is disconnected from its current earnings. WATCH because it represents a key battleground in the AI trade. Its current valuation may price in significant pessimism, but the stock needs a catalyst to change the negative narrative surrounding capital intensity. The company successfully demonstrates that its AI investments will generate high returns without severely damaging profitability.
MSFT WATCH
Medium-term
The software sector (IGV) is in a "bloodbath," failing to hold bounces while the broader market rallies. There is a historic 2-day divergence where the S&P is up >3% and software is down >5%. The narrative is that AI tools will disrupt these businesses, and fears are amplified by stories like Anthropic finding thousands of bugs in published software. The market is pricing in a severe reduction in the terminal value of software companies due to AI disruption, ignoring current record earnings. This creates a negative feedback loop of selling. The sector is to be AVOIDED because the negative psychology and narrative are overpowering strong fundamentals, with no clear floor in sight. The extreme relative underperformance indicates a structural re-rating, not a temporary correction. Software companies demonstrate several quarters of sustained earnings growth that convince the market the disruption threat is overblown.
XLK AVOID
Medium-term
05:51
Apr 09
Apr 09
BIL 1ST
SPY
▾
The speaker presented a chart showing that in a scenario where interest rates rise 300 basis points, the price of a 3-month T-bill would only fall 0.08%, compared to a 10-year Treasury bond falling ~20%. For the "safe" anchor portion of a portfolio, especially for someone near retirement, avoiding duration risk is paramount. Short-term Treasuries provide yield with minimal interest rate sensitivity. LONG on 3-month T-bills as the preferred instrument for the low-risk sleeve of a portfolio because they effectively serve as ballast with negligible price volatility in a rising rate environment. A prolonged period of rapidly declining interest rates, where longer-duration bonds would significantly outperform.
BIL LONG
medium-term
The speaker cited data showing the S&P 500 has been profitable approximately 81% of the time over all 3-year rolling periods since 1871. For a medium-term (3-year) goal like a down payment, mixing the S&P 500 with cash provides a high probability of positive returns while acknowledging and planning for the ~19% chance of a drawdown. WATCH the S&P 500 as a viable component for medium-term investing, but its use requires an explicit, upfront acceptance of the risk of capital loss within the timeframe. The investment horizon coinciding with one of the historical ~19% of 3-year periods that resulted in a loss.
SPY WATCH
medium-term
13:01
Apr 08
Apr 08
MU
HD 1ST
DASH
▾
Micron was cited as the #3 contributor to holding up the S&P 500 this year, offsetting Mag 7 weakness. It was up 60% at the time of the cited analysis and its market cap was noted as being around $426 billion. Its massive outperformance and large market cap mean its price action has a material, counterbalancing impact on the broader index. The discussion frames it as a key positive actor in the current market dynamic, making it a high-signal stock to monitor for understanding market resilience. A reversal in its sharp uptrend could remove a key support for the broader market.
MU WATCH
Short-term to medium-term.
Home Depot stock is down ~27% from its highs and is suggested to be an accurate proxy for overall housing activity. The business is described as "not faring very well." With the typical U.S. home being 44 years old and needing work, but high mortgage rates and prices locking out new buyers who would need to finance renovations, housing activity is in a standstill ("hibernation" or "debacle"). The stock's poor performance is viewed as justified ("it should be destroyed") given the current dismal fundamentals in the housing market. A sudden drop in mortgage rates or a new financial product to fund renovations could stimulate activity.
HD AVOID
Medium-term.
DoorDash utterly dominated the US food delivery market, growing from a small share in 2016 to ~70% by 2025, while GrubHub collapsed from ~70% to ~10%. This represents a near-total victory in a major consumer market segment, suggesting superior execution, partnerships, or strategy. The extreme market share capture makes it a dominant force worth watching, though the speakers note its stock has done "absolutely nothing" since IPO, creating a dissonance between business success and shareholder returns. Regulatory scrutiny, changes in restaurant/consumer fees, or a new competitive paradigm could threaten its dominance.
DASH WATCH
Long-term.
21:00
Apr 07
Apr 07
XBI 1ST
IBB 1ST
JPM 1ST
NFLX FLIP
▾
Speaker presents charts showing the Biotech ETFs (XBI - equal-weighted, IBB - cap-weighted) are "acting great technically" and consolidating, with the XBI/IBB ratio suggesting further relative upside for XBI. The improving technical posture, after a prolonged period of weakness, indicates building momentum and a potential breakout. LONG on biotech ETFs, with a preference for the equal-weighted XBI based on the ratio chart. A broader market sell-off negating the sector's technical strength.
XBI LONG
IBB LONG
medium-term
Speaker highlights JP Morgan's "fortress balance sheet," consistent ~20% Return on Tangible Common Equity, strategic acquisitions of failed banks (e.g., First Republic), and its status as a beneficiary of industry consolidation. These factors demonstrate superior risk management, operational efficiency, and an ability to grow through crisis, creating a durable competitive advantage. LONG for long-term ownership, viewed as a core holding that doesn't need to be sold due to temporary analyst downgrades or short-term price moves. A systemic banking crisis severe enough to breach its risk management.
JPM LONG
long-term
Technical analysis shows NFLX price action "acting very well," having held a prior gap, with the next resistance at ~$120. A stop-loss is identified at $90. Fundamentals are cited as strong post-price hike. The defined technical levels ($90 stop, $120 target) create a favorable risk/reward setup (risking ~$9 to make ~$20). LONG based on the technical setup and positive fundamental backdrop. Price breaking down below the $90 support level.
NFLX LONG
short-term
21:01
Apr 06
Apr 06
BIZD
XLF
BXSL 1ST
▾
The speaker identifies redemption requests as the primary catalyst to watch, calling them "the lit match." A slowdown or reversal of inflows forces private credit funds to sell assets and confront realistic valuations. Private credit relies on constant inflows to refinance loans and maintain inflated NAVs. Redemptions break this cycle, leading to asset sales, potential NAV write-downs, and credit rating downgrades for the underlying loans. The health of the entire private credit ecosystem is contingent on ongoing capital inflows. Elevated redemption requests are a leading indicator of mounting stress and a trigger for a broader repricing event. Inflows could re-accelerate, or funds could manage redemptions without significant NAV impairment, delaying or negating the crisis.
BIZD WATCH
Short to medium-term
The speaker asserts the core systemic risk is not in banks but in the U.S. life insurance & annuity industry, which holds ~$10 trillion in assets with thin capital buffers (~$658 billion surplus, implying ~17x leverage). This industry has significant exposure to private credit and other risky assets. If private credit reprices (due to redemptions), it could trigger downgrades and massive capital calls on insurers, exposing an opaque and undercapitalized offshore reinsurance backstop. The life insurance sector represents a highly leveraged, systemic "bomb" linked to the private credit "fuse." Its stability is critical and warrants close monitoring due to its scale and hidden leverage. Regulatory intervention or a Fed backstop could stabilize the sector, or losses in private credit could be contained and absorbed without triggering insurer insolvencies.
XLF WATCH
Medium to long-term
The speaker states that Blackstone's BCRED (private fund) and BXSL (public BDC) share roughly 80% of the same underlying loans, yet BXSL trades at a ~12% discount to its NAV while BCRED is marked at full NAV. This represents a clear arbitrage and indicates the public market does not trust the manager-marked NAVs of the private funds. The private fund valuations are likely inflated. An investor should avoid the private fund (BCRED) at its stated NAV when a nearly identical, more liquid, and cheaper public market alternative (BXSL) exists. Blackstone could successfully defend its marks, or the discount on BXSL could widen further if the underlying loans deteriorate.
BXSL AVOID
Medium-term
13:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
OBDC
DAL 1ST
▾
Dan Greenhaus highlighted that publicly traded BDCs like OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corp) are trading at a 25% discount to NAV, while private BDCs are illiquid and marked at higher values. This discount may present a valuation opportunity if private credit concerns are overstated, as redemptions in private funds have been modest with high shareholder retention and ongoing inflows. WATCH as a potential long opportunity if the discount narrows or fundamentals stabilize, but requires close monitoring due to underlying risks in the private credit sector, especially software loans. Worsening defaults in private credit, particularly in software exposures, could further depress valuations and NAV.
OBDC WATCH
Medium to long-term, dependent on credit cycle developments and liquidity conditions.
Josh Brown explicitly stated he bought shares in Delta Air Lines because it has its own refinery and is "the best airline." Delta's ownership of a refinery provides a partial hedge against high jet fuel prices, enhancing resilience during oil volatility. If oil prices stabilize or decline, airlines could see significant upside. LONG position as Delta is positioned as a resilient play within the airlines sector amid geopolitical and oil price uncertainty. Prolonged high oil prices or further escalation in the Middle East could increase operational costs despite the refinery advantage.
DAL LONG
Medium-term, tied to oil price dynamics and travel demand trends.
17:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
META 1ST
MSFT 1ST
AXP
NVDA 1ST
▾
Ben Carlson stated Meta is down about a third and included it with Microsoft as a "big high quality compan[y]" where the "highest probability bet is plugging your nose and buying Meta and Microsoft here and just don't look at them for 5 years." Despite regulatory lawsuits and the failed Metaverse investment, the company's core business (Instagram) remains strong, and it has weathered significant drawdowns before (e.g., -70% post-Metaverse). LONG because the current bear market decline offers a long-term buying opportunity in a company with a proven ability to recover from major setbacks. Regulatory actions could have a material impact. The core Facebook platform is seen by some as a declining "ball and chain."
META LONG
long-term
Ben Carlson stated Microsoft is down about a third, is a "big high quality compan[y]," and that the "highest probability bet is plugging your nose and buying Meta and Microsoft here and just don't look at them for 5 years." The stock has experienced a significant drawdown (~33%), placing it in the context of a broader MAG7 selloff, but the speaker views it as a high-quality business whose long-term prospects remain intact. LONG because the drawdown presents a high-probability entry point for a long-term investor willing to tolerate further near-term volatility. The technology cycle could change, preventing these "behemoths" from recovering as they have in past cycles. The stock could fall further from current levels.
MSFT LONG
long-term
Duncan Hill said American Express "piques my interest" and seems "pretty solid," describing it as a way to play the "K-shaped economy" or the top 10% of affluent consumers who are more resilient. The stock is down significantly (in a bear market), but the speaker views its customer base as financially resilient, potentially insulating it from broader economic slowdowns. WATCH because it is identified as an interesting, beaten-down name with a specific demographic thesis, but no explicit call to buy was made. A significant economic downturn could still impact even affluent consumers' spending and credit quality.
AXP WATCH
Not specified.
Duncan Hill stated he has "been buying some more Nvidia" because "it's at a cheaper valuation than it has been in a very long time right now based on their earnings growth and how much the stock has fallen off." The stock's decline has improved its valuation metric relative to its earnings growth trajectory, making it more attractive. LONG based on a valuation argument following a significant price decline. The competitive landscape in AI chips could shift (e.g., threats from alternatives like Anthropic affecting its partner OpenAI, in which MSFT is invested).
NVDA LONG
Not specified, implied medium- to long-term.
13:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
XLF
META 1ST
MSFT
▾
Michael Batnick expressed strong concern about private credit, citing illiquidity, redemption pressures, and the potential for it to be a "disaster" if included in 401(k) plans, due to mismatched investor expectations. Private credit funds face challenges with markdowns, leverage requirements, and hot money inflows, making them risky for investors who may need liquidity, exacerbated by media scrutiny and ongoing redemption cycles. AVOID because of the high risk of capital loss, inability to access funds when needed, and structural issues that could worsen with economic stress or AI-related bankruptcies. If redemptions slow significantly and underlying asset performance stabilizes, but current dynamics indicate persistent liquidity and valuation pressures.
XLF AVOID
medium-term
Michael Batnick explicitly stated that at current valuations, such as Facebook trading at 16 times forward earnings, if you can hold stocks like Facebook and Microsoft for a couple of years, you will make money. Valuations have compressed due to market concerns over AI investments increasing capital intensity, but this derisking creates a long-term opportunity as earnings continue to grow. LONG because the stocks are considered cheap relative to earnings potential, and historical patterns suggest rebounds after drawdowns for mega-cap tech names. AI investments may fail to generate expected returns, leading to sustained earnings pressure or further multiple contraction, especially in an economic downturn.
META LONG
MSFT LONG
long-term
22:26
Mar 31
Mar 31
NVDA
IGV
T
AXP 1ST
▾
Josh Brown called NVIDIA the "sexiest pitch" and said if he ran any type of fund, he would be buying it, but noted that if the previous day's lows don't hold, the next 10% move is lower. The stock fell from $215 to ~$170, potentially due to algorithmic selling at breakdown levels, and now trades at a historically low multiple (15x forward earnings) despite massive projected earnings growth. WATCH for a hold of the recent low ~$160s as a critical support level; a bounce from here presents a high-reward opportunity, but a break lower suggests further downside. A break below the recent low, triggering another wave of systematic selling.
NVDA WATCH
Short-term to medium-term.
Josh Brown explicitly bought IGV (software ETF) at the low on Friday and, when asked, stated the software stock group is in "fat pitch territory." The group was in a ~35% drawdown to critical support. The market needed to see a software rebound for psychological health, and buyers returned with strong single-day moves (e.g., Meta up 7%). LONG because the severe decline in a sector with strong underlying demand creates a high-probability, high-reward entry point for the medium to long term. A market-wide crash that breaks the established support levels.
IGV LONG
Medium-term to long-term.
Josh Brown made a case for AT&T, noting it has "a breakout coming," with $30 being obvious resistance, and that it could quickly move to $33-34 if broken. The company has transformed by shedding disastrous acquisitions (e.g., Time Warner), deleveraging, and focusing on profitable broadband and wireless businesses, making it a defensive, high-yield (~6%) play essential for AI/broadband infrastructure. WATCH for a technical breakout above $30, which would signal a new leg higher, while being paid a dividend to wait. Failure to break through $30 resistance or a return to irrational price competition in wireless.
T WATCH
Short-term to medium-term.
Josh Brown stated he would buy AXP after a 25% decline on "no news," calling it a "fat pitch," and that you'd look back on the drop as being "for no reason." The decline is attributed to fears of "white collar displacement" from AI, not a fundamental deterioration in business, as evidenced by strong commentary from Delta Airlines about healthy high-end consumer spending. LONG because the sell-off is disproportionate to the robust underlying consumer health of its premium customer base, offering attractive valuation. A material slowdown in high-end consumer spending or credit deterioration.
AXP LONG
Medium-term to long-term.
21:00
Mar 30
Mar 30
COMP
XLE 1ST
SPY
VIX
▾
Speaker provides specific statistical levels: S&P 500 at 6,250 and Nasdaq Comp at 20,650 represent a 2 standard deviation drawdown over 50 trading days. History shows that when these indices fall to these "2-sigma" oversold levels, subsequent 50-day forward returns are strongly positive (+9.6% avg.) with high win rates (92% for SPX, 81% for COMP). These levels are logical entry points to watch for a tactical bounce, as they represent historically tradeable oversold conditions. The historical pattern requires a supportive policy response to the root cause (e.g., war, Fed policy). Without a catalyst, returns can be poor (as in 2022).
COMP WATCH
SPY WATCH
short-term to medium-term
Speaker states you "never ever ever" sell energy stocks because they are your only hedge against an oil price spike, a lesson anchored in the 1990 experience. He advises being at least index weight (~4-5%). The current environment is an "all-time great oil price spike." Energy stocks are making new highs alongside oil, showing momentum. The sector was extremely underowned (~2% of S&P), and its high dividend payout offers a "money good" return versus uncertain tech reinvestment. Energy stocks are a core, non-tradeable hedge that must be held, especially during geopolitical oil shocks. The discipline is to hold through new highs. A sustained peak and reversal in oil prices, as per the 1990 analog, could end the momentum trade. A resolution to Middle East tensions could remove the crisis catalyst.
XLE LONG
medium-term
Speaker analyzes VIX forward returns based on closing levels. Moderate volatility (VIX 27-43) leads to good forward returns and win rates >50%. High volatility (VIX >43) breaks this relationship, with lower win rates and returns. The VIX acts as a market signal to policy makers. Effective "call-and-response" (e.g., Fed pivot) leads to good returns after a spike. When the signal fails (e.g., 2008), high VIX levels persist and forward returns suffer. The VIX level is a key indicator to watch for assessing whether market volatility has reached a level that typically forces a policy response and a subsequent market bottom. The current crisis (oil/geopolitical) may not have a clear policy off-ramp that the US can control unilaterally, potentially breaking the typical market-policy feedback loop even at high VIX readings.
VIX WATCH
short-term
13:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
CRM 1ST
MSGS 1ST
UBER 1ST
SMG
▾
Salesforce (CRM) is trading at 13-14x forward earnings, a historically cheap valuation. It is critically ingrained as the "system of record" in many regulated business processes. Activist investors like Starboard Value have taken positions. Its entrenched position in regulated industries (e.g., healthcare) provides durable revenue and high switching costs, protecting it from AI disruption. Activist involvement pressures management to improve capital allocation and profitability. LONG due to a wide margin of safety at current prices, durable competitive advantages, and catalysts from both operational improvement and shareholder activism. The company fails to demonstrate that its AI investments are improving earnings, leading to prolonged growth stagnation and a "value trap."
CRM LONG
long-term
MSGS (Madison Square Garden Sports) has an $8B enterprise value versus a combined Forbes valuation of $14.75B for the NY Knicks and Rangers. Management is exploring a spin-off into two separate publicly traded teams (Knicks & Rangers). A tax rule change effective after 2027 will prevent public companies from deducting the salaries of their top-five employees. The spin-off would unlock the underlying asset value for shareholders. The impending tax rule makes public ownership of a sports team with high-player salaries financially untenable, forcing a sale or going private. LONG due to a significant valuation gap and two clear, company-specific catalysts (corporate action and regulatory change) that should close it. Controlling shareholder James Dolan may not execute the spin-off optimally or may delay action. The market may not assign full private market values to the standalone teams post-spin.
MSGS LONG
medium-term
Uber has the largest ride-hailing and delivery network, is forming capital-light partnerships with multiple autonomous vehicle (AV) players (Lucid, Rivian, Pony.AI), and is a cash flow machine. The stock is disliked due to fears of competition from Waymo. In AVs, the largest network will win. Uber's strategy of fostering a multi-OEM AV ecosystem positions it to aggregate supply and meet demand, unlike a scenario where one company (e.g., Waymo) owns all vehicles. Its cross-platform data (rides + delivery) and Uber One membership create a durable competitive moat. LONG because it is the best-positioned logistics platform for the AV future and is currently undervalued as the market misprices this strategic advantage. Waymo or another single player achieves overwhelming market share and bypasses Uber's platform entirely, making its network irrelevant.
UBER LONG
long-term
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) is a high-quality, family-controlled consumer staples company. It trades at ~9.5x EBITDA, a discount to its historical multiple (12-13x). The 69-year-old founder/controller is heavily involved, and the company suffered from a costly foray into cannabis. The discounted valuation, aging controlling shareholder, and recent business struggles create a scenario where the controlling family may be motivated to sell the company to realize value. WATCH for a potential corporate action (sale) catalyst that could realize the valuation gap. The current price offers an attractive entry point if the catalyst materializes. The family decides against a sale, opting to maintain control indefinitely. The core business faces new headwinds that further compress earnings.
SMG WATCH
medium-term
13:00
Mar 25
Mar 25
XLF
HD 1ST
MSFT
Z 1ST
▾
Michael Batnick argues that AI will not replace financial advisors, using the analogy of AI-created workout plans not replacing personal trainers because people "need somebody to watch me... I have no discipline." The core value of financial advice is behavioral coaching and accountability, not just information or plan generation—functions AI can replicate. This human element is resistant to automation. WATCH the sector for resilience. This is a structural argument that a key profession within finance (advisors) is not threatened by AI displacement, which is a significant positive differentiator compared to other knowledge-work sectors. Client preferences shift dramatically toward fully automated, low-cost solutions, devaluing the behavioral coaching component.
XLF WATCH
Long-term
Ben Carlson presents a chart showing Home Depot stock "getting smooshed" and breaking below support. He notes it is flat since April 2021 despite $9 trillion in cumulative U.S. home sales over that period. The stock has completely failed to benefit from a massive housing sales boom, suggesting all future optimism was pulled forward and priced in earlier. This disconnect between business activity and shareholder returns exemplifies the perils of buy-and-hold individual stock investing. AVOID. The inference is that this is a broken thesis stock. Even with strong underlying market activity, the equity has been a poor capital allocator, making it an unattractive investment despite the seemingly favorable sector backdrop. A sudden, sustained thaw in the housing market coupled with a shift in investor sentiment could lead to a re-rating.
HD AVOID
Medium-term
Michael Batnick states Microsoft is down 31% from its peak, at "fresh lows," and is being used as a proxy for OpenAI. He notes "the sellers are in control" and expects it to go lower. The sharp drawdown represents a potential overreption to broader AI sector weakness. A decline of this magnitude for a company of Microsoft's caliber creates a valuation opportunity. WATCH because it is "getting close to plug your nose and buy territory," but the speaker explicitly states he will "wait for it to stop going lower" before considering a purchase, indicating a setup worth monitoring. The downward trend continues without a catalyst, or the fundamental thesis around AI profitability deteriorates further.
MSFT WATCH
Medium-term
Ben Carlson states, "I was bullish on the housing market in 2021 and I bought Zillow and it's been crushed since then. Done nothing essentially. I sold it a while ago." This is a post-mortem on a specific trade. The speaker's bullish housing thesis was correct (as evidenced by $9T in sales), but the chosen equity proxy (Zillow) failed to capture that value, leading to a loss. AVOID. The explicit narrative is one of personal underperformance and divestment. The direction is inferred from the negative outcome and decision to sell, framing it as an asset to avoid based on failed execution. A new business model or market cycle could make Zillow an effective housing market proxy in the future.
Z AVOID
Medium-term
22:19
Mar 24
Mar 24
005930.KS 1ST
WDC 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
MU 1ST
MSFT
▾
Josh Brown calls the semiconductor stock rally "this year's bubble" and says it will get "real ugly for the people that buy it today," advising to "sell before everybody else does." These stocks have had a massive, parabolic run-up (e.g., "Western Digital is so hot right now") and are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics. Avoid buying at current levels and consider selling existing positions to avoid a potential sharp correction. The bubble could continue to inflate for longer than expected, leading to further gains for those who remain invested.
005930.KS AVOID
WDC AVOID
MU AVOID
short-term
Josh Brown says to "lay off Alphabet here," describing its chart as breaking below previous support and being in "no man's land technically." The stock is being used as a source of funds in the market rotation, and sellers are in control of the price action. Avoid the stock until the technical picture improves or the selling pressure abates. The stock could rebound if the broader market turns or if AI-related sentiment improves unexpectedly.
GOOGL AVOID
short-term
Josh Brown states he will buy Microsoft aggressively, but only on a specific price action signal: "I need a down 4% day that closes up 2%. When that happens, I'll buy it." The stock has been in a persistent downtrend with consecutive red candles, and such a reversal pattern would indicate a potential bounce. He is waiting for that specific entry signal to go long, implying the current downtrend is not yet finished and a defined reversal is needed. The stock may not produce that specific price action and could continue to decline without a bounce.
MSFT WATCH
short-term
13:01
Mar 20
Mar 20
C 1ST
XLK
MSFT 1ST
AAPL
ORCL 1ST
▾
Lebenthal calls Citigroup the "easy button," citing its valuation (trades at book value), profitability improvements, a ~2.5% dividend yield, and the pending Banamex Mexico IPO/spin-off as the "final piece of the puzzle." CEO Jane Fraser's restructuring is bearing fruit, and the removal of the Banamex overhang will simplify the story. The stock's discount to book value offers a margin of safety. A straightforward value play with multiple near-term catalysts (profitability, divestiture) that should lead to a re-rating. A broader economic slowdown impacting credit quality could offset operational improvements.
C LONG
Medium-term (aligned with Banamex resolution).
Batnick asserts that even if the Iran conflict resolves, the "bigger story" remains the potential disruption from AI to software companies, questioning the impact on corporate and consumer spending if software investment dries up. The "software apocalypse" or AI displacement thesis threatens the business models and valuations of a wide range of technology service companies, which are already seeing significant stock price declines (61% in bear markets). This is a developing, high-magnitude risk that could drive further volatility and re-rating in the sector, requiring close monitoring regardless of other geopolitical developments. The impact may be overstated or take much longer to materialize than feared.
XLK WATCH
Medium-term to long-term.
Lebenthal states Microsoft is a "great company" and at ~22x forward earnings with >20% growth (PEG <1), it's a "steal." He explicitly says, "this is a price that I think two years from now I'm going to look back and say man that was a steal" and that he is loading up. The recent downdraft is attributed to general market selling (QQQ/SPY outflows), not company-specific news. Its RSI is at multi-year lows (~36), indicating extreme technical weakness. The combination of a low valuation metric (PEG) for a dominant, profitable franchise in AI (Azure, OpenAI) and a washed-out technical setup presents a high-conviction long opportunity. The stock could become more oversold (RSI 25) if market sentiment on tech/AI spending worsens further.
MSFT LONG
Medium-term to long-term (looking 2 years out).
Brown argues Apple is the "stealth AI winner," collecting nearly $900M in App Store fees from generative AI apps in 2025 without increasing capex. He states they are in the "pole position" to be the biggest beneficiary due to their dominant device ecosystem. While others spend heavily on AI capex, Apple monetizes AI adoption through its existing platform tax (15-30% on subscriptions). The upcoming "Agentic Siri" launch will integrate with all apps, making AI utility concrete for consumers. Apple's unique, capital-light toll-bridge model in the AI ecosystem is underappreciated and provides a clear path to monetization, making it a compelling long. Delays or failure in the Agentic Siri rollout could postpone the market's recognition of this thesis.
AAPL LONG
Medium-term (catalyst expected in 2025).
Lebenthal describes Oracle as a "coiled spring" for AI believers, down ~50% from highs. He acknowledges the market doubts OpenAI can pay its large contract with Oracle but argues "they just have to be good for some of it." OpenAI's recent massive fundraising ($110B) and incoming customer contracts provide credibility that at least partial payment will flow through to Oracle's earnings, which the market is not pricing in. The extreme sell-off on OpenAI solvency fears is overdone, creating a high-risk/high-reward long opportunity if AI spending remains robust. OpenAI faces financial or operational difficulties, jeopardizing its contract payments to Oracle.
ORCL LONG
Medium-term.
13:00
Mar 18
Mar 18
XLF 1ST
XLE
BTC
▾
The speaker highlights significant redemptions in private credit funds (e.g., 14%), the asset-liability mismatch, overvaluation of underlying SaaS-heavy portfolios, and the "stuck" position of financial advisors caught between clients and bad headlines. Forced selling and gating to meet redemptions can trigger a negative feedback loop, damaging fund structures and investor confidence in the broader private credit and alternative investment space within Finance. The segment (particularly private credit and related advisory services) is unattractive and risky to be involved with (AVOID) until the redemption wave and underlying credit cycle play out. A swift economic recovery or successful loan restructurings could stabilize private credit funds, making the current panic overblown.
XLF AVOID
medium-term
The speaker discusses the "perfect price" of oil ($78) that balances producer and consumer interests, highlights why current prices are surprisingly low given supply risks, and notes energy stocks are among the few sectors making 52-week highs. If the market is underestimating supply constraints from geopolitical events and demand remains steady, oil prices could spike, directly benefiting energy producers and their stocks. The sector warrants close monitoring (WATCH) due to high volatility, compelling risk/reward, and its potential to disrupt broader market stability if prices surge. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East or a sharp global economic slowdown could collapse oil prices and energy stock valuations.
XLE WATCH
short-term to medium-term
The speaker states, "My only thesis continues to be for crypto that every time it doesn't die, that's the best thing that happens to it." Bitcoin is noted as being back above $75,000. Repeated survival through cycles builds resilience, legitimacy, and adoption, creating a positive feedback loop for the asset. The asset is worth monitoring (WATCH) as its continued existence and recovery from setbacks reinforce its long-term viability and potential for appreciation. A catastrophic regulatory crackdown, major security failure, or loss of core utility could break the cycle of resilience.
BTC WATCH
long-term
22:21
Mar 17
Mar 17
BX
APO
UBER 1ST
ARES
NVDA 1ST
▾
Speaker discusses Apollo (APO), Blackstone (BX), and Ares (ARES) as potential bottom-fishing candidates in the beaten-down private capital space. Notes they were top gainers in the S&P on the day of recording. These stocks are down significantly (e.g., BX down ~40%) despite forward EPS estimates near all-time highs, creating a disconnect. The core business issue is an expected terrible fundraising environment in 2026, not necessarily widespread defaults in current holdings. The group is worth monitoring for a potential bounce if the private credit panic subsides and the feared systemic spillover does not materialize. Apollo is highlighted as potentially being more cautious and better positioned. The private credit/equity marks are indeed wrong, leading to significant NAV declines and sustained investor outflows, creating a vicious cycle.
BX WATCH
APO WATCH
ARES WATCH
medium-term
Speaker owns "a lot" of UBER and believes it will break its downtrend. Details a series of recent autonomous vehicle partnerships (Zoox/Amazon, Nissan/Waabi, Nvidia) that integrate potential competitors' fleets onto the Uber network. Uber's app becomes the aggregation platform for multiple autonomous vehicle providers (backed by major tech and auto companies), securing its position in the future market against Waymo and Tesla. The stock is exceptionally cheap (bottom quintile of S&P 500 P/E) while growth expectations (~36%) are triple the market median. The combination of strategic positioning for autonomy and deep value relative to growth makes the stock a compelling long. The recent partnership news is a catalyst for the stock to bottom and move higher. Execution risks on autonomous partnerships; competitive threat from Waymo/Google's direct integration into mapping apps remains potent.
UBER LONG
long-term
Speaker is long NVDA for over 10 years and states "I think it's going to 250." Calls it "the best company in the world" and "one of the cheapest stocks in tech." Highlights the "inference inflection" as a key shift from training to permanent, utility-like AI usage. The stock has consolidated for ~6 months near its 200-day moving average, digesting past gains. The GTC event emphasized the shift to inference and physical-world AI applications (robotics, autonomous vehicles), expanding the TAM beyond data center training. Expects a breakout higher from the consolidation pattern as uncertainties clear and the inference-driven growth story becomes clearer, with no specific news catalyst needed. Competition from lower-cost alternatives (e.g., Google TPUs, AMD) for inference workloads, and a potential pullback in data center financing which would directly hit orders.
NVDA LONG
medium-term
Speaker cites Adam Parker's downgrade of financials and states, "the thing that I am the most worried about is financial stocks." Points to record outflows from financial ETFs and severe price breakdowns in specific lenders like Capital One (30% drawdown) and American Express. The worry is that stress in the private credit market will spill over into public markets and broader lending. The price action in these bellwether financial names is seen as a leading indicator of credit issues spreading. The sector presents poor risk/reward due to spreading credit issues and the potential for a private credit crisis to infect the public financial system. The sell-off may not be a buying opportunity if the spillover occurs. The private credit issue is contained and does not spill over; rate cuts later in the year could provide relief for the sector.
XLF AVOID
short-term to medium-term
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